Hurricane 05L KST Advisory Number 2
KST HQ CEBU, PHILIPPINES
HURRICANE ELSA [AL052021]
2100UTC TUE JULY 06 2021

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SUMMARY OF INFORMATION
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LOCATION...26.6N 83.1W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
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WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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...HURRICANE WARNING...
* Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
* The Dry Tortugas
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo to south of Egmont Key
* West coast of Florida north of Steinhatchee River to Ochlockonee
River
* Coast of Georgia from the Mouth of the St. Marys River to
Altamaha Sound
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH...
* North of Altamaha Sound, Georgia, to South Santee River, South
Carolina
...STORM SURGE WATCH...
* West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida
...STORM SURGE WARNING...
* West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla River, including Tampa Bay
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KEY MESSAGES
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1. Heavy rain will impact Cuba tonight resulting in significant 
flooding and mudslides.  As Elsa moves across the western and 
northern Florida Peninsula through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may 
result in considerable flash, urban, and minor to isolated moderate 
river flooding.  Mid- to late-week, heavy rainfall across southeast 
Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia 
may result in isolated flash and urban flooding, with considerable 
flash and urban flooding possible across coastal Georgia and the 
Lowcountry of South Carolina.
 
2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions
of the west coast of Florida tonight and Wednesday, and a Storm
Surge Warning is in effect for that area.
 
3. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight and early Wednesday
along a portion of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect.  Tropical storm conditions are occurring
across portions of the Florida Keys and will spread northward along 
the west coast of the state within the warning area through 
Wednesday morning. 
 
4. Although the center of Elsa is expected to remain inland of the
coastline from Georgia through the Carolinas during the next couple
of days, tropical storm conditions are expected in a portion of 
southeastern Georgia and are possible elsewhere along much of the 
coasts of Georgia and South Carolina.  
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DISCUSSION
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The Hurricane Hunters completed their mission into Elsa a little
while ago, and observations from the aircraft indicate that the
storm's maximum winds are near 60 kt.  Elsa is a sheared tropical
cyclone, with the low level center situated on the southwest edge
of the main area of deep convection.  Much of the western half of
the circulation continues to lack significant shower or
thunderstorm activity.  Moderate westerly vertical shear, along
with relatively dry mid-level air, should continue to affect the
cyclone until landfall within the next day or so.  However
this environment should not be hostile enough to prevent some
slight strengthening, and Elsa is predicted to become a
hurricane overnight.
 
Elsa is moving northward, or 350/9 kt.  A continued northward
track is likely for the next 24 hours or so as the tropical
cyclone moves between the western periphery of an Atlantic
subtropical ridge and a broad low pressure area over the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico.  A turn toward the north-northeast
along the northwestern side of the ridge is expected by late
tomorrow, followed by an acceleration toward the northeast
over the next couple of days ahead of a trough over the  eastern
United States and eastern Canada.  The official track forecast is
similar to the previous ones and near or slightly to the right of
the model consensus tracks.

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FORECAST CONE
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NEXT ADVISORY AT 0300UTC WED JULY 8TH 2021 
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INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
$$ 
FORECASTER KHAN