0900UTC WED JULY 07 2021
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SUMMARY OF INFORMATION
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LOCATION...28.5N 83.5W ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WNW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
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WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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...HURRICANE WARNING... * West coast of Florida from Chassahowitzka to the Steinhatchee River ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING... * West coast of Florida from south of Chassahowitzka to Englewood * West coast of Florida north of the Steinhatchee River to Ochlockonee River * Mouth of St. Marys River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South Carolina ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH... * North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
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KEY MESSAGES
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DISCUSSION
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The central convection associated with Elsa dissipated for a time earlier this morning, although the latest radar and satellite imagery shows a new band forming in the northern semicircle. This decrease was likely caused by a combination of shear and dry air entrainment, and it has caused the cyclone to weaken. Aircraft and surface observations indicate the central pressure has risen to near 1004 mb, and the initial intensity is decreased to a possibly generous 55 kt based on aircraft and Doppler radar data. After a slight jog to the left, the storm has resumed a motion of 360/12. This motion should continue for the next 12 h or so until landfall occurs across the northwestern Florida peninsula. Thereafter, a gradual turn toward the north-northeast is expected by, followed by acceleration toward the northeast as Elsa moves into the mid-latitude westerlies. The forecast guidance has shifted a little to the left since the last advisory, and the new forecast track is also nudged in that direction. The new track lies a little to the right of the various consensus models. While little change in strength is forecast before landfall, there is a chance that the new convection could cause a short-lived re-intensification. So, based on this possibility a hurricane warning remains in effect for portions of the west coast of Florida. After landfall, Elsa should weaken as it crosses the southeastern United States, followed by some re-intensification as it accelerates back over the Atlantic. The system is expected to become extratropical by the time it reaches the Canadian Maritimes in 72 h. The new intensity forecast is at the upper edge of the guidance envelope and has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast.
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FORECAST CONE
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NEXT FULL ADVISORY AT 1500UTC WED JULY 7TH 2021
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INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
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FORECASTER ABBY