KST HQ CEBU, PHILIPPINES
Tropical Depression 06E [EP062021]
0900UTC WED JULY 14 2021
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA..
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SUMMARY OF INFORMATION
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LOCATION...14.2N 112.8W ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
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WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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There are no warnings and watches active for Tropical Depression 06E
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KEY MESSAGES
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There are no current Key Messages for Tropical Depression 06E
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DISCUSSION
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Satellite imagery indicates that convection associated with the low pressure area several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continue to become better organized, with banding near and west of the low-level center. In addition, recent scatterometer data shows that the circulation has become better better defined. Based on this, advisories are initiated on Tropical Depression 06E. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on reliable-looking scatterometer winds and satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.
The initial motion is 295/15. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer it west-northwestward for the next 36 h or so, followed by a turn toward the west. Some decrease in the forward speed is likely, especially around 72-96 h when a mid- to upper-level trough north of the cyclone temporarily weakens the ridge. The forecast track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and the forecast track is in the center of the guidance envelope close to the consensus models.
The cyclone is expected to be in an environment of light vertical wind shear through the forecast period. However, the sea surface temperatures along the forecast track cool through 96 h, and the system is expected to move into a dryer air mass. The intensity guidance generally forecasts the cyclone to reach its peak intensity in 48-72 h followed by weakening, and the intensity forecast follows the general trend of the guidance. The forecast peak intensity of 65 kt is near the upper edge of the intensity guidance.
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FORECAST CONE
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NEXT FULL ADVISORY AT 1500UTC WED JULY 14TH 2021
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INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
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FORECASTER KHAN