KST HQ CEBU, PHILIPPINES
Tropical Storm Felicia [EP062021]
1500UTC WED JULY 14 2021
...FELICIA STRENGTHENING QUICKLY... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR THURSDAY...
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SUMMARY OF INFORMATION
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LOCATION...14.3N 114.1W ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
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WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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There are no warnings and watches associated with Tropical Storm Felicia
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KEY MESSAGES
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There are no current Key Messages for Tropical Storm Felicia
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DISCUSSION
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Felicia is located over warm SSTs and in an area of low vertical wind shear. Given the recent development of a small inner-core, it seems likely that Felicia will continue to strengthen during the next couple of days. The only caveat appears to be nearby dry air that could get entrained into the circulation of the relatively small tropical cyclone and cause some disruptions in the intensification process. Although most of the intensity guidance is not extremely bullish and the rapid intensification probabilities are not particularly high, the NHC forecast predicts steady strengthening and brings Felicia to hurricane status within 24 hours. The NHC wind speed forecast is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model, which is at the upper-end of the guidance. The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward or 285/13 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of Felicia should steer the storm west-northwestward to westward during the next 12-24 h. After that time, the orientation of the ridge shifts slightly which is expected to cause Felicia to turn west-southwestward with some decrease in forward speed during the middle portion of the forecast period. The dynamical model guidance is in reasonably good agreement, and the NHC forecast lies near the TVCE consensus aid. The guidance envelope did shift a little southward from the previous cycle, and the new NHC forecast has been modified accordingly.
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FORECAST CONE
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NEXT FULL ADVISORY AT 0300UTC WED JULY 15TH 2021
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INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
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FORECASTER KHAN