TROPICAL STORM 06E KST Advisory Number 3
KST HQ CEBU, PHILIPPINES 
Tropical Storm Felicia [EP062021]
0300UTC THU JULY 15 2021
..FELICIA A LITTLE STRONGER... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON...
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SUMMARY OF INFORMATION
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LOCATION...15.1N 116.7W
ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
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WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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There are no warnings and watches associated with Tropical Storm Felicia
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KEY MESSAGES
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There are currently no Key Messages for Tropical Storm Felicia
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DISCUSSION
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Felicia has maintained a healthy satellite appearance today, with a 
symmetric central dense overcast and continued bursts of deep 
convection near and over its center. The upper-level outflow on the 
eastern side of the circulation appears somewhat limited, perhaps 
suggestive of some easterly wind shear. A mid-level eye was noted 
in earlier microwave data, but unfortunately no recent passes have 
sampled Felicia to help assess how the structure has changed. A 
blend of the subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB 
(T3.5/55 kt) and SAB (T4.0/65 kt) supports an initial intensity of 
60 kt for this advisory, which is slightly higher than the objective 
ADT and SATCON estimates of around 50-55 kt. 

Felicia is moving west-northwestward, or 285/13 kt, but the 
cyclone is forecast to turn westward and then west-southwestward 
during the next couple of days in response to a reorientation of the 
ridge axis to the north of Felicia. Thereafter, a general westward 
motion is likely through the rest of the forecast period as a low- 
to mid-level ridge remains positioned to the north of Felicia. The 
track guidance is tightly clustered, and the official NHC track 
forecast is essentially an update of the previous one with a slight 
southward adjustment that follows the consensus aids TVCE and HCCA. 

Felicia is expected to continue strengthening during the next couple 
of days over warm SSTs in a low vertical wind shear environment. The 
only apparent hindrance is some dry mid-level air in the surrounding 
environment, which could disrupt Felicia's convective organization 
if it is entrained into the inner core of the small cyclone. The 
SHIPS guidance indicates that Felicia will move into a drier and 
more stable mid- to upper-level environment beginning Friday, which 
is forecast to end the storm's intensification phase and induce a 
gradual weakening trend this weekend and into early next week. The 
official NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one 
and closely follows the HCCA guidance. The intensity forecast 
becomes more track-sensitive by 48 h, as the expected 
west-southwestward turn would keep Felicia to the south of the 26 
deg C isotherm. This should allow the cyclone to remain at or near 
hurricane strength through the end of the forecast period.
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FORECAST CONE
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NEXT FULL ADVISORY AT 0900UTC THU JULY 15TH 2021 
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INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
$$
FORECASTER KHAN