HURRICANE 06E KST Advisory Number 4
KST HQ CEBU, PHILIPPINES
Hurricane Felicia [EP062021]
0900UTC THU JULY 15 2021
...FELICIA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A HURRICANE... ...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED...
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SUMMARY OF INFORMATION
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LOCATION...15.2N 117.6W
ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES
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WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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There are no warnings and watches associated with Tropical Storm Felicia
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KEY MESSAGES
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There are currently no Key Messages for Tropical Storm Felicia
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DISCUSSION
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Overnight, Felicia has maintained a small, but circular central
dense overcast near its estimated center. A fortuitous GMI microwave
pass at 0545 UTC depicted a well-defined mid-level eye on the 89 GHz
channel, with deep convection wrapped three-fourths around the south
and east sides of Felicia's center. Since that time, the storm's
infrared satellite structure has improved further, with a distinct
warm spot apparent near Felicia's center with colder than -70 C
cloud tops wrapping around this feature. Subjective Dvorak estimates
from TAFB and SAB were both T4.0/65 kt at 0600 UTC, but a more
recent objective ADT estimate was up to T4.4/75 kt. Given the
additional improvement seen on geostationary satellite imagery since
0600 UTC, the latest initial intensity was raised to 75 kt this
advisory, making Felicia a hurricane.
Felicia appears to be starting a leftward turn, with the latest
estimated motion at 280/10 kt. Over the next 24-36 hours, a weak
upper-level trough currently centered over Baja California is
forecast to cutoff and shift the mid-level ridging, currently north
of Felicia, to the northwest ahead of the cyclone. This ridge
reorientation is expected to result in a slow west-southwestward
motion of Felicia beginning in the next 24 hours. Afterwards, the
mid-level ridging becomes reestablished north of the cyclone,
allowing a resumption of a more westward motion after 60 hours. The
latest track guidance remains in good agreement, but has shifted a
bit more southward this cycle. The official NHC track forecast is
also a little south of the previous forecast, blending the latest
track forecasts from the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids.
Felicia has rapidly intensified over the last 24 hours from a
tropical depression to a category one hurricane. In the short term,
Felicia remains in an environment of low (5-10 kt) vertical wind
shear and warm (27-28 C) sea surface temperatures. Now that the
hurricane appears to have developed an inner core with convection
axis-symmetric around it, additional intensification is expected
with a new peak intensity of 95 kt forecasted in 24 to 36 hours. The
first part of the NHC intensity forecast is on the upper end of the
intensity guidance due to the higher initial intensity, and also
given the possibility rapid intensification continues, as suggested
by SHIPS-RII guidance, which gives Felicia a one-in-three chance of
a 25 kt intensity increase over the next 24 hours. Afterwards, while
vertical wind shear is expected to remain low, mid-level relative
humidity is expected to decrease, leaving the small tropical cyclone
susceptible to dry-air intrusions as sea surface temperatures also
gradually decrease. A combination of these environmental factors are
expected to lead to gradual weakening beginning after 36 hours
through the end of the forecast. The latter portion of the NHC
intensity forecast is in better agreement with the intensity
guidance and closely follows the HCCA consensus aid.
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FORECAST CONE
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FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0900Z 15.2N 117.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 15.3N 118.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 15.2N 120.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 14.9N 122.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 14.6N 123.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 17/1800Z 14.4N 125.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 14.3N 127.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 14.4N 131.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 14.5N 135.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
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NEXT FULL ADVISORY AT 1500UTC THU JULY 15TH 2021
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INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
$$
FORECASTER KHAN