HURRICANE 06E KST Advisory Number 7
KST HQ CEBU, PHILIPPINES
Hurricane Felicia [EP062021]
0900UTC FRI JULY 16 2021
...FELICIA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...FURTHER STRENGTHENING FORECASTED...
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SUMMARY OF INFORMATION
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LOCATION...15.1N 121.0W
ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES
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WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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There are no warnings and watches associated with Hurricane Felicia
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KEY MESSAGES
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There are currently no Key Messages for Hurricane Felicia
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DISCUSSION
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Tiny Felicia has continued to intensify tonight. Earlier SSMIS
microwave imagery showed that the hurricane was maintaining a closed
circular eyewall and cloud-top temperatures surrounding the eye on
infrared satellite have continued to cool below -70 C. Scatterometer
data from an ASCAT-A pass at 0418 UTC also indicated the small size
of Felicia's wind field, with peak 34-kt wind radii only extending
roughly 50 nm from the center in the northern semicircle. Subjective
Dvorak estimates at 0600 UTC were both T5.5/102 kt from TAFB and SAB
while the latest UW-CIMSS ADT objective estimate was T5.4/100 kt. A
blend of these intensity estimates support a current intensity of
100 kt, making Felicia the first major hurricane in the East Pacific
basin this year.
Felicia now appears to be moving slightly south of due west with the
latest estimated motion at 260/8 kt. Now that the strongest
deep-layer ridging is positioned northwest of the hurricane, a
west-southwestward motion is expected to continue for the next day
or so. Afterwards, a narrow ridge axis shifts back north of Felicia,
and the cyclone is expected to resume a more due westward motion
between 24 to 72 hours. In the latter portion of the track forecast,
the hurricane will come under the influence of a stronger mid-level
ridge located north of Hawaii, resulting in another leftward turn by
the end of the forecast period. The latest track guidance remains in
good agreement for the majority of the forecast. The official NHC
forecast is a touch south of the previous track and lies between the
HCCA and TVCE consensus aids.
Additional short-term intensification is forecast while Felicia
remains in a favorable environment of low vertical wind shear
between 5-10 kt and warm sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) between
27-28 C. Thereafter, mid-level humidity values are forecasted by the
ECMWF-SHIPS guidance to drop below 50 percent as SSTs also gradually
decrease. However, both deep-layer (200-850 hPa) and mid-level
vertical wind shear are expected to remain light and easterly
through at least the next 72 hours. Light easterly shear in
combination with marginally warm SSTs are common environmental
factors associated with major hurricanes that develop annular
characteristics, and these storms are known to weaken at a slower
than typical rate. To account for this possibility, the intensity
forecast only shows very gradual weakening between 24 to 48 hours
which is above the majority of the intensity guidance but lies
closest to CTCI (COAMPS-TC). Afterwards, Felicia's weakening rate is
forecast to increase as SSTs cool further, and northwesterly
vertical-wind shear impinges on the cyclone by the end of the
forecast period. The latter portion of the intensity forecast is
closer to the mean of the intensity guidance and is near the HCCA
intensity consensus aid at 120 hours.
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FORECAST CONE
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FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/0900Z 15.1N 121.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 14.9N 122.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 14.6N 123.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 14.5N 125.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 14.6N 126.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 18/1800Z 14.7N 128.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 14.8N 130.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 14.6N 134.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 13.8N 137.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
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NEXT FULL ADVISORY AT 1500UTC FRI JULY 16TH 2021
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INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
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FORECASTER KHAN