HURRICANE 06E KST Advisory Number 8
KST HQ MANILA, PHILIPPINES
Hurricane Felicia [EP062021]
1500UTC FRI JULY 16 2021
...FELICIA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN... ...NOW A STRONG CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE...
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SUMMARY OF INFORMATION
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LOCATION...15.0N 121.6W ABOUT 940 MI...1510 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES
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WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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There are no warnings and watches associated with Hurricane Felicia
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KEY MESSAGES
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There are currently no Key Messages for Hurricane Felicia
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DISCUSSION
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Compact Hurricane Felicia has continued to rapidly strengthen this morning with a well-defined, warm (>15C) clear eye now evident in infrared satellite imagery. However, the convective cloud tops surrounding the eye have warmed by almost 10 deg C during the past several hours, and a 1022Z ATMS microwave satellite pass showed the inner core convection a little less organized. Subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were a consensus T6.0/115 kt and objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ADT over the past couple of hours have averaged T5.7/105 kt. The initial intensity is raised to 110 kt, and just below category 4 strength, for this advisory based on a blend of the various satellite intensity estimates and the slightly degraded aforementioned convective features. Felicia is moving west-southwestward or 255/07 kt. Strong deep-layer ridging to the north of the hurricane is expected to keep Felicia moving west-southwestward for the next 12-24 h. Thereafter, the global and regional models all show the ridge relaxing somewhat, which should allow Felicia to move more westward in the 24-120-hour forecast period. The new NHC track forecast is essentially on top of and just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies near the middle of the tightly packed simple and corrected consensus models TVCE, GFEX, and NOAA-HCCA. Some additional slight strengthening could occur this morning due to low vertical shear and warm SSTs conditions, with Felicia briefly becoming a category 4 hurricane. However, the warm water beneath the powerful hurricane isn't very deep as indicated by upper-ocean heat content values currently only around 5 units, which suggests that cold upwelling could begin at any time during the next 12 hours. Ocean heat content values are forecast to remain below 10 units from 24-96 hours, and decreasing to less than zero thereafter. Thus, slow weakening is forecast to begin by 24 h and continue through the remainder of the forecast period despite the favorable low (<10 kt) vertical wind shear regime that Felicia will be moving through. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the consensus intensity models NOAA-HCCA and IVCN.
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FORECAST CONE
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FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/1500Z 15.0N 121.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 14.8N 122.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 14.6N 124.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 14.6N 126.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 14.7N 127.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 19/0000Z 14.8N 129.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 14.8N 131.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 14.4N 135.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 13.7N 138.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
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NEXT FULL ADVISORY AT 0300UTC FRI JULY 17TH 2021
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INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
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FORECASTER ABBY