TROPICAL STORM 08E KST Advisory Number 1
KST HQ CEBU, PHILIPPINES
Tropical Storm Hilda [EP082021]
0300UTC SAT JULY 31 2021
...HILDA MOVING WEST-NORTHWARD OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC...
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SUMMARY OF INFORMATION
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LOCATION...13.2N 114.6W
ABOUT 735 MI...1185 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
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WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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There are no warnings and watches associated with Tropical Storm Hilda
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KEY MESSAGES
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There are currently no Key Messages for Tropical Storm Hilda
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DISCUSSION
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Satellite imagery indicates that Hilda has gotten a little better
organized during the past several hours, with the low-level
center now near the eastern end of a long convective band that is
present in the southwestern semicircle. Satellite intensity
estimates are 35 kt from TAFB and 45 kt from SAB, and based on
these the initial intensity remains 40 kt. The storm is currently
in an environment of light northwesterly vertical wind shear with
the bulk of the outflow to the south.
Conditions generally appear favorable for strengthening during the
next 72 h or so, as Hilda is expected to be over warm sea surface
temperatures and in an environment of light to moderate shear.
Based on this, the first part of the intensity forecast is unchanged
from the previous forecast and calls for Hilda to become a
hurricane between 24 and 36 h and peak in intensity around 60 h.
After that, the forecast becomes less confident. The cyclone is
expected to move over decreasing sea surface temperatures after
72 h, and this should cause gradual weakening as indicated in the
official forecast. The official forecast for this period has been
nudged downward due to the forecast motion over cooler water.
However, the GFS and ECMWF models suggest the possibility that Hilda
will interact with other nearby systems - the GFS forecasting with
Tropical Depression Nine-E to the west and the ECMWF forecasting
interaction with a disturbance to the east. Should either of these
interactions occur, Hilda could weaken at a different rate than
currently forecast.
The initial motion is 290/13. Hilda is located on the south side
of a subtropical ridge, and if the storm does not interact with
other nearby weather systems a general west-northwestward motion
with a decrease in forward speed is expected through the forecast
period. The new forecast track is shifted a little north of the
previous track, and it lies just to the south of the various
consensus models. If Hilda does interact with either Tropical
Depression Nine-E or the disturbance to the east, it will lead to
erratic motion.
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FORECAST CONE
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FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/1500Z 15.0N 121.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
INIT 20/0900Z 15.9N 136.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 15.5N 138.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 14.9N 141.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
INIT 31/0300Z 13.2N 114.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 13.5N 116.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 14.1N 118.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 14.7N 120.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 15.3N 122.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 02/1200Z 15.8N 123.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 16.5N 124.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 18.0N 127.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 19.5N 131.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
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INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
$$
FORECASTER KHAN/BEVEN