HURRICANE 08E KST Advisory Number 3 KST HQ CEBU, PHILIPPINES Hurricane Hilda [EP082021] 0300UTC SUN AUG 1 2021 ...HILDA BECOMES A HURRICANE... ----------------------------------------------- SUMMARY OF INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 118.7W ABOUT 825 MI...1330 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES ----------------------------------------------- WATCHES AND WARNINGS ----------------------------------------------- There are no warnings and watches associated with Hurricane Hilda ----------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGES ----------------------------------------------- There are currently no Key Messages for Hurricane Hilda ----------------------------------------------- DISCUSSION ----------------------------------------------- Hilda has resumed strengthening during the past several hours, including the short-lived appearance of an eye in the central dense overcast. Recent 37-GHz microwave imagery confirms an eye is developing, but indicates that the eyewall is not yet closed on the northeastern side of the eye. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 77 kt, while the CIMSS satellite consensus is near 80 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to a possibly conservative 75 kt. Although Hilda is experiencing some easterly vertical shear, conditions are generally conducive for strengthening during the next 24 h, and the early part of the intensity forecast has been adjusted upward based mainly on current trends. After that time, decreasing moisture and decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track should cause steady weakening. The latter part of the intensity forecast has only minor changes from the previous forecast and follows the trend of the intensity guidance. The initial motion is now a little slower at 285/9. The subtropical ridge to the north should steer Hilda generally west-northwestward for the next several days, with a more northwestward motion around 96 h as the cyclone passes south of a weakness in the ridge. Overall, the guidance envelope has shifted a little northward since the previous advisory, and the new forecast track is also adjusted northward. It should be noted, though, that the global models continue to show the possibility of erratic motion due to Hilda interacting with TD-9E to the west and the weaker, but larger, low pressure area to the east. The most drastic example of this is in the Canadian model, which shows Hilda taking a significant turn to the south before resuming a northward motion.a will be near cooler waters in 2 to 3 days. Therefore, Hilda is likely to reach its peak intensity in about 48 hours, and the NHC intensity forecast at that time is near the upper end of the guidance suite. Hilda is expected to move over even cooler waters after 48 hours, which should cause a gradual weakening trend through the end of the forecast period. ----------------------------------------------- FORECAST CONE -----------------------------------------------FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 14.3N 118.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 14.7N 120.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 15.2N 121.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 15.8N 123.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 16.4N 124.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 03/1200Z 17.2N 125.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 18.3N 126.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 20.0N 130.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 20.5N 134.0W 40 KT 45 MPH ----------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------- INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER $$ FORECASTER KHAN/BEVEN